Golf Tidbits: Which 50-something will make a run at the British?

Golf Betting Lines

07/15/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The British Open returned to the Old Course at St. Andrews this week for the 28th time. No course has hosted more Open Championships.

In keeping with the vintage of the historic venue, the story of the last two British Opens was a 50-something making a memorable run at the title. In 2008, 53-year-old Greg Norman was the third-round leader and clung to the lead on the 10th tee of the final round before falling apart on the back nine.

Last year, 59-year-old Tom Watson birdied the 71st hole to take the lead. He was looking to become the oldest major champion ever, and he would have tied the record for most wins at the British Open.

Watson bogeyed the 72nd hole, then lost to Stewart Cink in the playoff.

Whose turn is it this year? There are six names that come to mind, though only one of them has won the Open Championship on the Old Course at St. Andrews.

The six that could make a run this week are Mark Calcavecchia, Nick Faldo, Sandy Lyle, Tom Lehman, Mark O'Meara and Loren Roberts. The first five are former Open champions, while Roberts is the reigning Senior British Open champ.

Here's a breakdown of the six, and we'll tell you at the end which member of the group we think has the best chance to position himself for a title this week.

- Calcavecchia won the '89 British at Royal Troon. Prior to turning 50 in June, he missed two of his last four cuts on the PGA Tour. Since joining the Champions Tour, he has shared sixth and 16th in his two starts. Look for him to make plenty of noise on the Champions Tour, but not much this week.

- Faldo won the Open at St. Andrews in 1990, but has played just once all season. At the BMW International three weeks ago, Faldo missed the cut by nine strokes in his first start since the '09 Senior British Open. It is unlikely you'll be there down the stretch, so enjoy your birthday on Sunday, Sir Nick.

- Lyle, who won the '85 British at Royal St. George's, has been a non-factor in his last three starts on the Champions Tour. The two-time major champion missed the cut at the Senior PGA Championship, but has a pair of top-12 finishes in his last two European Senior Tour events. That's all well and good, but Lyle not's the choice here.

- At Royal Lytham & St. Annes in 1996, Lehman claimed his lone major championship. He won the Senior PGA back in May and shared 41st at the Memorial before missing the cut at the U.S. Open. He would be a good choice, for next weekend's Senior British Open.

- That leaves us with Roberts and O'Meara. Roberts would be a great choice since he has gone third-first-fifth in his last three Champions Tour starts. However, the choice here is O'Meara.

The 53-year-old teamed with Nick Price to win the Liberty Mutual Legends of Golf on the Champions Tour in April. That came after a runner-up finish in the rain-shortened Outback Steakhouse Pro-Am.

In his last three starts, his only top-20 was a fourth-place finish at the Senior PGA Championship. O'Meara, who won the '98 Open Championship at Birkdale, has only broken par in six of his last 10 years.

I didn't say I was picking the hottest player among the group, just the one I think has the best chance at making an unlikely run at winning the season's third major.

Keep an eye on O'Meara.

THE UNWANTED TITLE DEFENSE

Most, if not all golfers, will tell you explicitly that one of their top goals is to win a major championship. Only a select few are able to accomplish that feat.

John Rollins will not be among those players this week, though he will be attempting to defend a title at a PGA-sanctioned tournament, the Reno-Tahoe Open.

The British Open is technically a European Tour event, and for those who were unable to qualify to play at St. Andrews, the PGA Tour offers Reno-Tahoe Open. Winning the Reno-Tahoe Open counts as official victory on the PGA Tour, but does not automatically qualify a player for the four major championships.

Rollins, therefore, has the somewhat thankless task of defending his title this week in Reno. His victory last year came when the event was played opposite the World Golf Championships - Bridgestone Invitational.

Rollins, ranked 116th in the world, is the fourth-highest player in the field in Reno. Chad Campbell is the highest-ranked, at No. 93.

With 85 of top 100 in the world playing at the British, Rollins has to contend with only two players that have won on the PGA Tour this year and two former major champions in his quest to repeat as the Reno-Tahoe champion.

If Rollins does repeat, he would join Vaughn Taylor as the only two players that have repeated in Tahoe.

MINI-TIDBITS

- Tiger Woods is using a new ball and a new putter this week at the British Open. Will either matter? Probably not, but I still think he finishes in the top-five, at worst.

- Meg Mallon announced her retirement from competitive golf last week. The 17- time winner's move is a big loss for the LPGA Tour, even though she has missed the cut in all seven starts this year.

- Lonnie Nielsen will be out of action for the remainder of the Champions Tour schedule as he is set to undergo knee surgery on July 21. Nielsen said his right knee has troubled him since he was in college, when he injured it playing basketball.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.

MySportsbook.com: NBA Championship Odds

With the playoffs about two months away, the top two teams in the Western Conference are the clear cut leaders to win the NBA Championship. The Dallas Mavericks have the best record in the NBA (44-9) and have been absolutely scorching since the second week of the season.  What makes the Mavs’ record more impressive is the fact that they dropped their first four games of the season.  Currently they have won 17 out of their last 18 and are MySportsbook.com’s favorite (2-1) to win it all.  Right behind the Mavs are the Pacific leading Phoenix Suns (39-13).  Last season, the Suns lost in the Conference Finals to non-other then the Mavericks four games to two.  Of course the Suns were without center Amare Stoudemire who has is averaging 19.9 PPG and 9.5 RPG since coming back from his knee injury.  Unlike the Mavs, the Suns have struggled a bit lately having lost their last three and four out of their last seven.  Of course the main reason for their three straight loses is due to the absence of two time MVP Steve Nash, who is out with a shoulder injury.  Heads-up, the Mavs have beaten the Suns in both of their meetings this season.

In the Eastern Conference, the Pistons (32-19) are the favorites to win it all at 6-1. The addition of Chris Webber seems to have been a good move for the Pistons.  Since coming over from the 76ers, Webber has averaged 13.1 PPG and 7.3 RPG and the Pistons are 11-4.  Even though the defending champion Heat are currently on the playoff making cusp, they are the Eastern Conference team that is getting the most action to win it all (9-1).  The fact that Shaquille O’Neal is back in the starting lineup after missing 39 games probably has something to do with this.  No doubt, Shaq makes a difference when in the lineup as their winning six out of their last seven would indicate.

Just because it is the All-Star break doesn’t mean that you can’t bet on NBA hoops this weekend.  Be sure to log onto MySportsbook.com to bet on who you think will cut down the nets this July. Also, be sure to check out all of the lines and props for All-Star weekend.  With the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry, there are plenty of ways to cash in on the NBA this weekend.

MySportsbook.com’s NBA Championship odds:

Atlanta Hawks 1000-1

Boston Celtics 5000-1

Charlotte Bobcats 5000-1

Chicago Bulls 20-1

Cleveland Cavaliers 20-1

Dallas Mavericks 2-1

Denver Nuggets 25-1

Detroit Pistons 6-1

Golden State Warriors 250-1

Houston Rockets 12-1

Indiana Pacers 60-1

Los Angeles Clippers 45-1

Memphis Grizzlies 5000-1

Miami Heat 9-1

Milwaukee Bucks 1000-1

Minnesota T-Wolves 200-1

New Jersey Nets 50-1

New Orleans Hornets 150-1

New York Knicks 150-1

Orlando Magic 75-1

Philadelphia 76ers 1000-1

Phoenix Suns 5-2

Portland TrailBlazers 1000-1

Sacramento Kings 250-1

San Antonio Spurs 9-1

Seattle Sonics 5000-1

Toronto Raptors 35-1

Utah Jazz 20-1

Washington Wizards 25-1

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