Royals continue set with Orioles in Kansas City

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles hope a flurry of changes can help lead to more results like the team produced on Thursday.

The revamped club will set its sights on a second straight victory over the Kansas City Royals, who'll be out to put an end to a five-game losing streak in tonight's clash between the teams from Kauffman Stadium.

Baltimore announced prior to Thursday's game it had hired Buck Showalter to serve as the team's new manager, although the former Yankees, Diamondbacks and Rangers skipper won't officially take over until the Orioles return from their current road trip on Tuesday. Baltimore fired field general Dave Trembley on June 4, with interim manager Juan Samuel having gone 17-31 since assuming those duties.

Showalter won't have Miguel Tejada to put in his lineup, however, as the Orioles traded the former American League MVP to San Diego on Thursday in exchange for minor league pitcher Wynn Pelzer.

Baltimore did just fine without Tejada in last night's opener of this four- game series, rallying for a 6-5 extra-inning victory to stop a five-game slide. Ty Wigginton, another Orioles player rumored to be on the trading block, drove in the winning run with a sacrifice fly in the top of the 11th inning.

The Orioles trailed 5-3 after five innings, but scored single runs in both the sixth and eighth frames to draw even. Corey Patterson knotted the score with a solo homer off Royals reliever Robinson Tejeda with two out in the top of the eighth.

"Going over the scouting report on him, we knew he had a good fastball," Patterson said of Tejeda. "So I told myself to just say 'heater.' In the back of my mind, I thought he was going to throw me something off-speed and I kept fouling them. He didn't and obviously during that at-bat, when you see the same pitch, you're going to get a pretty good track on it."

In the 11th, Cesar Izturis worked a leadoff walk against Kansas City's Blake Wood (0-2) and moved to third on a Brian Roberts single before crossing the plate on Wigginton's fly ball to left.

"It just boils down to a leadoff walk," said Wood afterward. "You just can't do that [with the] game tied like that. I was just trying to be a little too fine."

Both Wigginton and Patterson finished with two RBI and Nick Markakis added a solo homer for Baltimore, which received a combined 7 2/3 scoreless innings from its relief corps after starter Brian Matusz was rocked for five runs over the first 3 1/3 frames. David Hernandez (5-7) picked up the win by shutting out the Royals in the ninth and 10th.

Kansas City, which has now lost 14 of its last 17 contests, received two hits and an RBI out of Yuniesky Betancourt in its most recent setback.

The Royals will be trying to get back in the win column tonight, as well as enabling the recently-acquired Sean O'Sullivan to notch his first victory with his new team. Tonight the young right-hander will be making his second start since being obtained by Kansas City from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last week as part of a trade that sent infielder Alberto Callaspo to the Halos.

O'Sullivan's Royals debut did not go well, as the 22-year-old was tagged for five runs and a pair of homers over five innings in a road loss to the New York Yankees on Sunday. Ironically, he defeated the defending world champions in Yankee Stadium in his final start as a Angel, tossing six innings of two- run ball and logging four strikeouts back on July 20.

The San Diego native made two starts against Baltimore as a rookie last season and received a no-decision both times, although he allowed 10 runs and 16 hits over a combined 9 2/3 innings of work.

Rookie Jake Arrieta gets the call for the Orioles tonight and will be out to improve upon a pair of shaky starts to begin the second half. The highly- regarded righty surrendered five runs in a 5 1/3-inning no-decision against Tampa Bay on July 20, then followed up by permitting five runs and walking four batters while lasting only four frames in Sunday's 10-4 loss to Minnesota.

Both of those outings took place at home, so perhaps leaving the hitter- friendly confines of Camden Yards will work to Arrieta's benefit. He's done well in limited action on the road, having compiled a 2-1 record and a 3.18 earned run average in four away assignments.

In nine overall starts since being promoted from the minors in June, Arrieta has gone 3-3 with a 5.40 ERA.

These teams split a pair of meetings in Baltimore back in May, as well as a four-game series held at Kauffman Stadium last season.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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